Simon Bray
Racing Analyst
Handicapping Strategies
When handicapping a race for the first time, I look at the pp's and I try to identify two things: speed and class. Speed(or pace) plays a major outcome to the result of race, whether it is the controlling (lone) speed or whether there is so much speed that the race sets up for a closer. Identifying the speed in a race can give you a picture of how the race might set up and help you to make your selections acccordingly.
Secondly, I look at class. By class we mean how a specific horse matches up against the rest of the field. For example, if a certain horse has been facing stiff competition but has been getting soundly beaten, if he/she shows up in a weaker race where there are many horses who are in form and winning races, he/she will then become the "class" of the race. Although out of form against tougher competition this horse will be extremely competitive in this weaker field despite the poor past performances. Reading the conditions of a race is extremely important aswell. Class can be identified by seeing how horses "fit" the conditions of the race at the top of the pp's.
Lastly pedigree is one of my favourite angles. Playing maiden turf races is a great way to execute a pedigree play. Only experience and reading about pedigree influence can help you in this area but once you acquire the knowledge it is extremely useful in turf races. More often than not turf maiden races provide value as many horses are trying the surface for the first time after an unsuccessful main track and with big fields there is lots of value to be had. Pedigree plays an important part in turf racing. Under pedigree plays, I also like to play horses that have a distance pedigree but have been sprinting without success. Horses who present this profile usually show an even running style when sprinting but when they are finally stretched out to run long, they perform very well, as they are finally being asked to do what they are bred for.